Obstacles come, let us be surrounded by…

 

In many ways, this Lok Sabha election was unlike any other. Everyone is rushing to interpret the mandate and the results in their own style. In Maharashtra, shortly after the results were announced, some asserted that the voters had rejected Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party. Famous Marathi poet from Maharashtra Krishnaji Keshav Damle, who penned poetry under the pen name ‘Keshavsuta’ had once said, ‘A person’s world is equivalent to his acumen.’ And hence, I genuinely feel that there is no need to take these people’s declarations seriously.

People who won 9 seats are rejoicing as though they secured 900 seats. And hence, it becomes imperative to analyse the results from different perspectives on the basis of the statistics. It is only after careful examination that one can conclude that people’s mandate clearly is in favour of the Bharatiya Janata Party and the National Democratic Alliance. Despite the alliance of different opposition parties creating a false narrative about the changing of the Constitution and the fatwas that were issued on the basis of religion, the BJP managed to secure 240 seats. Now, let us compare the results with the results of the previous election, only then will it be evident as to who won and who lost.

During the 2014 elections, the then ruling Congress won 42 seats. In 2009, Congress had won 28.55% votes whereas BJP had won 18.80%. In 2014, Congress got 19.31% votes whereas the BJP got 31% votes. Congress’s share declined by 9% in 2014. More than 150 seats had been lost by the Congress, which had won 206 seats in 2009. The data, both in terms of number of seats and voting percentage, unequivocally shows how voters had outright rejected the Congress.

On the other hand, the percentage of votes polled by the Bharatiya Janata Party increased from 31% to 37.7%, a 6% increase whereas Congress’s percentage of votes increased by 0.25% – Congress won 19.31% votes in 2014 which increased to only 19.67% in 2019. This election, however, Bharatiya Janata Party’s share dropped to 36.56%, a 0.50% reduction. But the number of BJP seats decreased from 303 to 240, a decrease of 63 seats. Even after Congress’s share increased by 1.75%, its number of members increased from 46 to 98.

This voting percentage is typically what makes elections interesting and tricky. Despite all the major opposition parties joining hands, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s vote share had reduced by 0.50%. Still, the executive editor, whose party won nine seats, is blowing trumpets and shouting that people rejected the BJP. In fact, the actual rejection from the voters was seen during the elections of 1977, 1980, 1989 and 2014. In 1984, Congress had won 415 seats, but by 1989 it had just 195 seats left, down by a whopping 220 seats. The BJP lost 63 seats and saw a 0.50% decline in its vote percentage in 2024.

The success of an election must be evaluated on the basis of votes polled and seats won. Following the Emergency, voters made sure that both Indira Gandhi, the prime minister at that time, and her son Sanjay Gandhi lost the election in 1977. It was owing to Congress’s catchphrase ‘Garibi Hatao’, Indira Gandhi was able to secure more than 300 seats in the 1971 election. Subsequently, Congress lost 200 seats in 1977. This is called ‘rejection from the voters’ or defeat.

People saw how conspiracy was hatched to destabilize the nation by spreading false information and trying to confuse voters during the 2024 elections. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party had decided to run in this election based on the myriad development projects the government had undertaken over the past ten years. When the Congress and its allies in the I.N.D.I.A Alliance realized they would not be able to hold on to power against Narendra Modi’s formidable ‘guarantee of development’, they began propagating that the constitution will be altered should the BJP win. The sole purpose of this propaganda was to incite discord and discontent among the populace.

Also, members of a particular community were given assurances on the basis of their religion. In an effort to divide voters along religious lines, attempts were made to instil fear in the minds of the minority communities. This led to a wave of widespread voting against the Bharatiya Janata Party in many places. The Opposition also tried to create fear about the BJP and the Modi government in the minds of the Muslim community by claiming that the CAA will drive Muslims out of the country. The results of two constituencies with a majority of Muslims show how intensely the polarization on religious grounds took place.

In Malegaon Central Assembly constituency, which is a part of Dhule LS constituency, Congress candidate Dr. Shobha Bachhav bagged 1,98,869 votes whereas BJP candidate Dr. Subhash Bhamre received only 4,542 votes. This was the only constituency where the Congress candidate secured such a huge margin of 1.94 lakh votes. In fact, in the five Assembly constituencies of Dhule Lok Sabha constituency Dhule Rural, Dhule City, Sindkheda, Malegaon Outer and Satana-Baglan, BJP’s Dr. Bhamre was leading with over 1.88 lakh votes. But only because of less votes polled in one constituency, Dr. Bhamre had to accept defeat. He lost to Dr. Bachhav by 3,000 votes. In fact, in 8 constituencies in Maharashtra, BJP candidates lost by fewer than 30,000 votes.

In Maharashtra, it is being painted that Mahayuti was rejected by the electorate. It is not true. In fact, there are just 2 lakh votes separating Mahayuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi in the vote totals. The Maha Vikas Aghadi received 2.50 crore votes or 43.91% compared to the Mahayuti’s 2.48 crore or 43.60%. MVA won by a margin of less than 0.50% over Mahayuti. In fact, in comparison to 2019 results, BJP’s share of votes decreased by 1.50% whereas Congress’s share rose by 1 percent and its seats increased by 12. In Mumbai, despite registering an increase of 2 lakh votes, we lost. We lost eight seats by less than 4%. This clearly shows that the election was close. After analysing the statistics, I am sure that the narrative that the electorate rejected the BJP and Mahayuti is untrue. The Opposition in this election had already decided that, come hell or high water, they would try to unseat the Bharatiya Janata Party by any means necessary. Social media helped propagate rumors intended to divert attention and instil fear in the minds of voters. All this was a calculated attempt to create instability throughout the country.

Both, deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis and BJP state president Chandrashekhar Bawankule worked hard for the party’s success in Maharashtra. Fadnavis addressed 115 campaign meetings. He skilfully articulated the party’s position during his outreach program to every nook and corner of the state. Even BJP state president Bawankule addressed 147 meetings at the organization level in addition to addressing 100 other meetings such as Namo Samvad and interactions with Super Warriors. Bawankule had also addressd 69 public meetings during this period.

I want to emphasize that, despite a few losses in Maharashtra and other states, we were completely successful in several other states. In states where our performance fell short of our expectations, our leadership will undoubtedly assess the errors that occurred at the organizational and strategic levels and take appropriate action to correct them. Every election has taught the BJP leadership and the organization as a whole, new lessons. And that is how, our journey that began with two seats in 1984 election reached over 300 seats in 2019, over a span of 35 years. It is undeniable that winning a majority in three consecutive terms is indeed a noteworthy accomplishment. Undoubtedly, we experienced certain setbacks which will be evaluated thoroughly. But such setbacks do not divert our organization nor our leadership. If I must cite Atalji,

 

‘Badhaye aati hain aaye

Apmano main, Sammano main,

Unnat Mastak, Ubhara Seena,

Pidaon main chalna hoga|

Kadam milakar chalna hoga||

(Obstacles come, let us be surrounded by

In insults, in honours,

We will have to grow with our head held high, our chest raised,

In pains, we will have to walk with matching steps|)

 

Gaining power is never our ultimate goal. We strive to learn from every election and approach our work with great tenacity. And we shall continue to work with the same fervour and determination in future as well.

 

(Article Pre-Published in Times of India -10 June  2024)

Keshav Upadhye, Chief Spokesperson