Last week, the so-called Opposition parties from the
country assembled in Mumbai for the ‘chaha-pohe’ function. (In Maharashtrian
families, a formal meeting of a boy and a girl for marriage prospects is
referred to as ‘Kande-pohe or Chaha-Pohe’ function. This humble snack with its
wholesome taste is used as a metaphor for all that marriage or life in general
stands for). Uddhav Thackeray hosted this function. Even prior to this, the
Alliance organized similar get-together in Bengaluru and Patna. God knows how
many more such events will be organised in future. What interests me however,
is despite hosting it for the third time, neither of them has confirmed their
‘pasanti’ (approval).
Someone had secretly leaked information that these
parties will finalize their Prime Ministerial candidate. But nothing like that
happened. The fact that leaders of these parties assembled under one roof shows
their intent of exhibiting their strong unity. Apparently, their next meeting
has been scheduled in Chennai. This is nothing but a failed attempt to
intimidate the Bharatiya Janata Party before the Lok Sabha elections.
When this interesting ‘chaha-pohe’ program was
happening in Mumbai, the popular weekly India Today published results of its
opinion poll. India Today’s poll has predicted that the National Democratic
Alliance led by the Bharatiya Janata Party will get around 306 seats in the
2024 Lok Sabha elections. Also, according to the polls conducted by Times Now
and India TV, the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance government
will again come to power with 300 seats or more. While the Opposition is conniving
and holding such meetings, the opinion polls have a different tale to tell.
Is it that these people do not have the time to look
into the poll results or are they deliberately refusing to pay any heed to it?
But at the same time, none of these leaders are even openly expressing
confidence that the Opposition will win a thumping majority in the upcoming
elections. In Mumbai, Congress’s prince Rahul said, “2024 elections will not be
easy for the BJP.” Even senior leader like Sharad Pawar, whose name for Prime
Ministerial position had been discussed quiet often, refused to confidently
admit, “We will outplay this election.” Probably, they are only satisfied with
hosting such functions. Anyway.
The very fact that these Opposition parties have come
together to oppose the Bharatiya Janata Party is in accordance with the basic
principle of democracy. And there is absolutely no reason to complain about it.
While the Opposition was busy conducting meetings, a few other developments
also took place – Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party declared to independently
contest the Chhattisgarh Assembly elections scheduled later this year. AAP has
announced that if it comes to power, it will provide free electricity up to 300
units in Chhattisgarh. The ruling Congress leaders have opposed any settlement
with Kejriwal. In fact, even the leaders in Delhi have opposed a settlement
with AAP. Arvind Kejriwal also recently announced that he will independently
contest the Bihar Assembly elections in 2026. This shows the harmony within
these parties. Although they seem to be discussing about a common minimum
programme the moment seat sharing issue comes up, their true self will come to
the fore. At that time people will see how this alliance was formed to only
oppose the BJP.
Similar experiments have been carried out even in the
past (1989, 1998 and 1999 elections) when the Opposition parties allied in the
same manner. In 1989, Vishwanath Pratap Singh, who left the Congress, had
raised a strong opposition against the Congress by collaborating with all the
Opposition parties. But despite having the ‘honesty halo’ around him, he was
unable to secure a majority for his Janata Dal on his own. Vishwanath Pratap
Singh had a strong case like Bofors at hand against Rajiv Gandhi. Bofors had
raised a big question mark to the ‘clear’ image of Rajiv Gandhi; whereas in the
Shah Bano case a perception that this leader is trying to appease the Muslim
vote bank also got deeply rooted.
Also, the Congress leadership, that was ignoring the
agitation for Ram Mandir that was picking up at a massive scale at that time,
began realizing its impact on public opinion that began changing during the
1989 Lok Sabha elections. And that was precisely why Rajiv Gandhi had asked the
then chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, Narayan Dutt Tiwari to grant permission
for the laying of the foundation stone of Ram Mandir. This further increased
confusion about Rajiv Gandhi and in general the image of Congress. A perception
got formed among the minorities that in order to pacify the discontent in the
minds of the Hindus over the Shah Bano case, the permission for laying of the
foundation stone of Ram Mandir was granted. But since Rajiv Gandhi wasn’t a
very diplomatic politician, he neither realized the seriousness of the Shah
Bano case nor the cultural and religious implications of the Ram Mandir. As a
result, the Congress suffered a major setback in North India. VP Singh was the
only face of the Opposition’s Alliance for the post of Prime Minister during
that election. It had a major impact on the outcome of that election. Today,
unfortunately, not a single opponent from the I.N.D.I.A Alliance has that
‘halo’ around them and hence they do not have any candidate to suggest.
If the major Opposition parties in the respective
states unite, it will be easy to defeat the BJP –this perception got deeply
rooted during the 2019 Lok Sabha by-elections in Uttar Pradesh and later this
became the political adage. But political analysts who come up with such
calculations are unaware about people’s opinion. In fact, it will be
interesting to watch how many of these ‘baratis’ (parties) will continue to
remain in alliance. No matter how many functions they organize, except for some
candid images, they will not be able to achieve anything.
A doubt before I conclude – is Sanjay Raut, to whom
Uddhav Thackeray has rightfully handed over his power of attorney, the brain
behind this meeting that was hosted in Mumbai? I must admit this got them the
much-desired coverage from the national media and no one can beat them in carpe
diem.
(Article Pre-Published in Times of
India -04 September. 2023)
Keshav Upadhye, Chief Spokesperson
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