Bharatiya Janata Party recorded a thumping victory in the Gujarat assembly elections. It faced defeat in the Himachal Pradesh elections. And what is even more interesting is the fact that it lost the Himachal Pradesh elections but still secured 43 per cent votes. This clearly shows the impact of ‘Modinomics’ across the country. This sets the prologue to what the results will be like in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
But seeing the way reactions are coming in the media
after the results, it seems neither the opposition nor the intellectuals are
ready to take any lessons from the results nor are they ready to change their
political strategies. They are neither prepared to acknowledge the essence of
‘Modinomics’ nor are they bothered to see its impact on the voters. And now
they have stooped so low in criticising ‘Modinomics’ that they are getting
personal in their criticism which is often foul and demeaning.
Now before I delve into the Gujarat results and its
implication on national politics, let me take you through the Himachal Pradesh
election results. All the opponents, the intellectuals and the supporters of the
Congress are more than happy to see BJP’s defeat in the Himachal Pradesh
elections, in fact their happiness has no bounds. They are not even interested
in analysing the results. But one must understand that more than the number of
seats bagged by a particular political party what is important is the
percentage of votes secured by them. The actual interpretation of election
results can happen only if a thorough, scientific and an unbiased analysis of
the results is done.
While analysing the data obtained from the opinion polls
and the exit polls and accordingly predicting the results, these people fail to
look at the hidden aspects behind this number game. Although the difference in
the seats won by the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress is 15, still when
we look at the Mathematics of the number of votes, it will be seen that
Congress won only 1 per cent more votes than the BJP. While Congress got 43.90
per cent votes, BJP got 43 per cent votes. BJP lost 15 seats only because it
got 1 per cent votes less than the Congress. While the BJP got 18,14,530 votes,
the Congress bagged 18,52,504 votes. This means that the Congress got 37,974
more votes than the BJP. In five constituencies, the BJP candidates lost by a
meagre 860, 399, 567, 382 and 60 votes respectively.
Being in power has its own set of pros and cons. In
Himachal Pradesh, the pension of the state government employees was the main
campaign issue during the election. The BJP government had rejected the demand
for implementing the old pension scheme and hence had to bear its
repercussions. But it must be noted that had the old pension scheme been
implemented, it would have adversely affected the economy of that state. And if
even some people tried to lure the voters by promising the implementation of
this scheme, Modiji opted to go against the populous demand and opposed it.
Interestingly, after Congress’ victory in Himachal, a few Congress leaders,
intellectuals and analysts went to the media stating that Congress’ victory is
the new beginning; Narendra Modi’s influence is slowly fading out. Even though
Bharatiya Janata Party did not get majority in Himachal, still one needs to
understand that the voters have not altogether rejected the Bharatiya Janata
Party. And this is the true analysis of the result.
It was natural; the entire country was eagerly waiting
for the Gujarat elections. In fact, the sympathisers of the Aam Aadmi Party, a
few intellectuals and self-proclaimed media experts in India, in the last
couple of months, had started campaigning on the social media claiming that
this election will be rather tough for the Bharatiya Janata Party. Relying on
this rumour, many journalists had pitched their stories accordingly. In fact,
Arvind Kejriwal had publicly predicted in a television program that the Aam
Aadmi Party will bag 150 seats. He had given his prediction in writing to a
television reporter that AAP will bag 150 seats in Gujarat and the Bharatiya
Janata Party will not even get 20 seats in the Delhi Municipal Corporation
elections. After winning the Punjab Assembly elections, AAP was on cloud nine,
but the voters busted their expectation.
The Congress had, in 1985, won 149 seats in the Gujarat
Assembly elections. And the BJP broke Congress’ record of winning the highest
number of seats. The voters lauded and appreciated the Gujarat government’s
various welfare schemes initiated under the leadership of Prime Minister
Narendra Modi and union home minister Amit Shah.
The success of Prime Minister Narendra Modi lies in his
simplicity and the skill with which he connects with the masses. Prime Minister
Modi strikes a cordial interaction with people from different strata – be it
the sportsmen, the scientists, the artists, students or any person who has
benefitted from the various central government welfare schemes. He interacts
with the common man with extraordinary ease and affection. Without reacting to
all kinds of criticisms, he composedly and tirelessly continues to work.
The schemes designed and implemented by the Modi
government to improve the lives of the common man have been successful in
achieving the government’s goal of Antyodaya (upliftment of the weaker sections
of the society). Revolutionary schemes like the crop insurance have largely
benefitted the farmers as it provided millions of farmers financial cover
especially after natural calamities. And hence this ‘Modinomics’ is
inapprehensible to these intellectuals and analysts. The credibility and
trustworthiness of the rulers is proved only when the benefits of their schemes
reach the last individual.
During the inauguration of the Kashi Vishwanath temple
corridor, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had honoured the craftsmen who built the
corridor and the cleaning staff and the workers by showering flowers at them.
He also sat with the workers on the steps of the temple and interacted with
them. The Prime Minister also took food with them. He does it very naturally.
It is through these small initiatives that makes the common man relate with
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and they look up to him as the head of their
family.
The Aam Aadmi Party came to power in the Punjab Assembly
by promising free schemes. And they campaigned on the similar lines in Gujarat
as well. But the voters in Gujarat ousted this campaigning strategy. And AAP
had to accept defeat in Himachal Pradesh which is adjacent to Punjab. Realising
that Congress was no longer a threat to the Bharatiya Janata Party, the
intellectuals, writers and media experts tried to influence the Aam Aadmi
Party. But the voters gave them a good reality check. There is absolutely no
doubt that the result of Gujarat elections will set the prologue for the 2024
Lok Sabha elections.
Before concluding – The Bharatiya Janata Party got a
thumping victory in the minority-dominated Bahul region in the Rampur Assembly
constituency in Uttar Pradesh. This victory of the Modi government was a
befitting reply to those who complain that the Modi government is against the
minorities.
Box: The Congress prince seems to have got influenced by
one of Cadbury’s advertisements – ‘Kabhi kuch na kar ke bhi dekho’ (some time
try not to do anything). And that is why he didn’t even bother to visit
Himachal Pradesh. Probably, that must have also helped the Congress, who knows.
(Article Pre-Published in Times of
India –11 Dec.
2022)
Keshav Upadhye,
Chief Spokesperson
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